A Virus is Not a Political Disaster, It's a Natural Disaster

It's nearly impossible to resist, but how about we put the brakes on politicizing COVID-19? Please challenge me if I have something wrong, but my understanding of epidemiology is that once a highly contagious virus spreads through a species and tends towards endemic status the goal of "containment" is unrealistic. Unless some countries attempt permanent isolation, the reality is to expect widespread infection throughout the global population (think of the delay in smallpox reaching Native Americans).

So what is the purpose of social distancing, self-quarantine, and border closures? The only purpose is to delay endemic onset. This is important to (1) prevent overwhelming hospital capacity during the pandemic stage and (2) possibly buy time to reach a point of decreased mortality from infection before endemic status is reached. Related to the second point, more time allows a greater possibility for developing a vaccine, more effective treatment plans, and for COVID-19 to follow expected viral evolution towards higher transmissibility but lower fatality—in line with the prediction that COVID-19 will evolve into a “common cold” like other coronaviruses.



What am I going on about? I don’t agree with criticisms that the USA should have imposed more aggressive lockdowns or mandated quarantine. During the initial quarantine the goal was spelled out clearly, to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed and experiencing shortages of hospital beds and ventilators. This effort was successful and with the exception of New York City, this did not happen (hospital ships and Army hospital units were deployed and never used). We have been looking at countries such as South Korea and New Zealand as the paragon of quarantine, but I predict those countries will see widespread infection in due time, and cases there are starting to rise. They have just delayed breaking the COVID-19 seal.

‘We felt we had beaten it’: New Zealand’s race to eliminate the coronavirus again
‘Covid-19: South Korea closes Seoul schools amid rise in cases

COVID-19 is a horrible virus and devastating natural disaster. With the balance of maintaining a civil society and functioning economy I think we will realize that there is/was no perfect government solution to prevent spread or greatly limit fatalities. Humans need to persevere without further political division.

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